Models and Data for Expected Fantasy Points
ffopportunity builds a dataframe of Expected Fantasy Points by preprocessing and applying an xgboost model to nflverse play-by-play data. It also includes utilities to download precomputed data from automated GitHub releases.
About
Expected Fantasy Points are a measure of player opportunities in fantasy football - essentially aiming to quantify how many points the average player would score given a specific situation and opportunity. It uses xgboost and tidymodels trained on public nflverse data from {SEASONS 2006-2020} to do this.
For more on the modeling details, see: {MODELLING VIGNETTES}
Installation
Install the development version from GitHub with:
install.packages("ffopportunity", repos = "https://ffverse.r-universe.dev")
# or use remotes/devtools
# install.packages("remotes")
remotes::install_github("ffverse/ffopportunity")Usage
The two main functions of {ffopportunity} are ep_load() and ep_build().
You can download the latest version of the EP data with ep_load() as follows:
library(ffopportunity)
ep_load(season = 2020:2021, type = "weekly")
#> > <ffopportunity predictions>
#> > Generated 2022-01-10 09:39:41 with ep model version "latest"
#> # A tibble: 11,529 x 159
#> season posteam week game_id player_id full_name position pass_attempt
#> <chr> <chr> <dbl> <chr> <chr> <chr> <chr> <dbl>
#> 1 2020 SF 1 2020_01_AR~ 00-00313~ Jimmy Garop~ QB 33
#> 2 2020 SF 1 2020_01_AR~ 00-00332~ George Kitt~ TE 0
#> 3 2020 ARI 1 2020_01_AR~ 00-00352~ Kyler Murray QB 39
#> 4 2020 ARI 1 2020_01_AR~ 00-00305~ DeAndre Hop~ WR 0
#> 5 2020 ARI 1 2020_01_AR~ 00-00229~ Larry Fitzg~ WR 0
#> 6 2020 ARI 1 2020_01_AR~ <NA> <NA> <NA> 0
#> 7 2020 SF 1 2020_01_AR~ 00-00316~ Raheem Most~ RB 0
#> 8 2020 ARI 1 2020_01_AR~ 00-00331~ Kenyan Drake RB 0
#> 9 2020 ARI 1 2020_01_AR~ 00-00347~ Christian K~ WR 0
#> 10 2020 SF 1 2020_01_AR~ 00-00332~ Trent Taylor WR 0
#> # ... with 11,519 more rows, and 151 more variables: rec_attempt <dbl>,
#> # rush_attempt <dbl>, pass_air_yards <dbl>, rec_air_yards <dbl>,
#> # pass_completions <dbl>, receptions <dbl>, pass_completions_exp <dbl>,
#> # receptions_exp <dbl>, pass_yards_gained <dbl>, rec_yards_gained <dbl>,
#> # rush_yards_gained <dbl>, pass_yards_gained_exp <dbl>,
#> # rec_yards_gained_exp <dbl>, rush_yards_gained_exp <dbl>,
#> # pass_touchdown <dbl>, rec_touchdown <dbl>, rush_touchdown <dbl>,
#> # pass_touchdown_exp <dbl>, rec_touchdown_exp <dbl>,
#> # rush_touchdown_exp <dbl>, ...You can also build EP from base nflverse data with ep_build() as follows:
ep_build(season = 2021, version = "latest")#> -- Starting ep build for 2021 season(s)! 2022-01-11 07:58:44 -------------------
#> > Loading pbp 2022-01-11 07:58:44
#> > Preprocessing pbp 2022-01-11 07:58:46
#> > Generating predictions 2022-01-11 07:58:54
#> > Summarizing data 2022-01-11 07:59:33
#> -- Finished building ep for 2021 season(s)! 2022-01-11 07:59:33 ----------------
#> > <ffopportunity predictions>
#> > Generated 2022-01-11 07:59:33 with model version latest
#> List of 5
#> $ ep_weekly : tibble [5,756 x 159] (S3: tbl_df/tbl/data.frame)
#> $ ep_pbp_pass: tibble [18,747 x 57] (S3: tbl_df/tbl/data.table/data.frame)
#> $ ep_pbp_rush: tibble [14,038 x 47] (S3: tbl_df/tbl/data.table/data.frame)
#> $ ep_version : chr "latest"
#> $ timestamp : POSIXct[1:1], format: "2022-01-11 07:59:33"Data
ffopportunity data is automated with GitHub Actions and can be manually downloaded in RDS, parquet, and csv formats from the releases page.
Getting help
The best places to get help on this package are:
- the nflverse discord (for both this package as well as anything R/NFL related)
- opening an issue
Contributing
Many hands make light work! Here are some ways you can contribute to this project:
You can open an issue if you’d like to request specific data or report a bug/error.
If you’d like to contribute code, please check out the contribution guidelines.
Terms of Use
The R code for this package is released as open source under the GPL v3 License. The models and expected points data included within this package’s are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License
Code of Conduct
Please note that the ffopportunity project is released with a Contributor Code of Conduct. By contributing to this project, you agree to abide by its terms.